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2016 Recommendations Review

2016_recommendations

2016 will long be remembered…..

It is one of those tumultuous years, reminiscent of 2008 in its trials and tribulations. It will be remembered for political upheaval, the “Brexit” vote, the arrival of Theresa May as PM and the election of the maverick Donald Trump as POTUS. 2016 began with worries about the Chinese slowdown and Fed rate hikes. Those were quickly eclipsed. It ended with a vast array of new challenges and concerns.

2016 proved the old adage that “equity markets climb a wall of worry”. This was made possible in 2016 by “Brexit”’s toxic effect on sterling’s external value. The pound devalued, dropping to 31 year lows v the USD and six months on, after a few failed rallies, sterling remains very depressed. Will 2017 see the pound recover? In our view, overseas investors remain very concerned over the UK/EU relationship, a factor likely to weigh on sterling.

Global equity market valuations are stretched. The US zero interest rate policy “ZIRP” is ending, a factor likely to increase bond yields, encourage a higher USD and repatriation of overseas funds back to the USA. Tighter monetary conditions will arrive in the UK in due course possibly during H2 2017.

How did our recommendations do?

Security Date Rec. Entry Price Target / Hit Target Gain/ Loss (%)*+
Powershares Cleantech** 14/1/2016 Buy US$26.84 US$35/ No 26.2
Aldermore 14/1/2016 Buy 197p 315p/ No 19.3
Barclays 14/1/2016 Buy 195p 280p/ No 20.7
Breedon 14/1/2016 Buy 70p 85p/ No 2.8
Compass 14/1/2016 Buy 1132p 1300p/ Yes 14.8
Johnson M 14/1/2016 Buy 2458p 3400p/ Yes 38.3
Senior 14/1/2016 Buy 206p 330p/ No -5.1
First Solar** 28/1/2016 Buy US$64.14 $90/ No -46.7
Lloyds BG 15/2/2016 Buy 56.7p 65p/ Yes 15.9
SPDR Gold** 26/2/2016 Buy US$117.93 $135/ No -5.0
Hochschild 26/2/2016 Buy 67p 95p/ Yes 41.8
Barclays 2/3/2016 Hold 160p 160p/ Yes
Dunelm 7/4/2016 Buy 947p 1100p/ No -15.5
ICAP 25/4/2016 Buy 478p 520p/ Yes 8.8
JPM Japan 25/4/2016 Buy 298p 330p/ Yes 10.7
SSE 25/4/2016 Buy 1482p 1700p/ No 3.6
Lok n’ Store 18/5/2016 Buy 330p 400p/ Yes 21.2
Pennon 18/5/2016 Buy 809p 950p/ No 1.3
Talk Talk 18/5/2016 Buy 251p 350p/ No -31.8
GSK 19/7/2016 Buy 1646 1800p/ No -4.0
Topps Tiles 19/7/2016 Buy 107 150p/ Yes 40.2
DFS Furniture 19/7/2016 Buy 211 300p/ No 6.6
RBS 2/8/2016 Buy 184 250p/ Yes 35.8
Carpetright 8/9/2016 Buy 237 350p/ No -30.8
Vertu Motor 8/9/2016 Buy 49.75 60p/ No -15.5
Astra Zeneca 3/10/2016 Sell 4957p 4500p/ Yes 10.1
Dechra Ph 3/10/2016 Buy 1328p 1600p/ No 1.4
GSK 3/10/2016 Buy 1635p 1800p/ No -3.3
Hikma Ph 3/10/2016 Hold 2023p 2023p/ –
Shire Ph 3/10/2016 Buy 4992p 5150p/ Yes 3.2
Babcock 19/10/2016 Buy 992p 1150p/ No -3.8
Mediclinic 19/10/2016 Buy 898p 1200p/ No -13.1
TUI AG 19/10/2016 Buy 1051p 1250p/No 11.3
First Group 18/11/2016 Buy 111p 130p/ No -6.3
Greene King 18/11/2016 Buy 758p 900p/ No -6.1
Halfords 18/11/2016 Buy 325p 400p/ No 7.1
N Brown 23/11/2016 Buy 197p 250p/ No -16.6
Next 23/11/2016 Buy 4996p 5500p/ No -18.7
One Savings 14/12/2016 Buy 348p 450p/ No 0.0
Virgin Money 14/12/2016 Buy 296p 375p/ No 9.8

+Calculated from recommendation date to either close on 5th January 2017/ or to the price target was met
*Gains/ Losses do not include dealing & compliance costs, stamp duties etc
**No adjustment has been made for FX movements.

Conclusion

The 2016 research reports were drawn from a diverse range of sectors and companies – an approach we intend to continue in 2017.

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