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We were surprised by the scale of the Conservative victory (a 66 seat gain), largely due to their performance in English marginals and in Labour’s northern heartland, the “Northern wall”.
This is one of those rare election victories like, 1983 and 1997 where 2 elections have been won for the price of one. It is almost arithmetically inconceivable that the Conservatives lose in 2024 (?). That sort of win creates confidence but also arrogance, possibly in equal measure.